Researchers at Coastal Carolina University are predicting one major hurricane to make landfall on the East Coast this year.
They are using a new model that is known as the Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO), named after the Category 4 hurricane that made landfall near McClellanville in 1989.
Marine science professor Paul Gayes says historic storms datign back to 1950 were reviewed, along with 22 additional variables that affect the weather. “Some of them may be the temperature in the basin or the amount of rainfall in parts of Africa,” he told South Carolina Radio Network. “That influences this overall system in the large-scale sense.”
The HUGO model predicts one major landfall for the eastern seaboard and none along the Gulf Coast in 2013. However, the model does predict two to four major storms in the Atlantic during that time. The model does not predict where the storm would hit along the East Coast.
Coastal researchers unveiled HUGO last month after nearly 10 years of weather study, saying they believe the new modal can be an eventual replacement for the National Hurricane Center forecasts.
Gayes expects the HUGO model’s predictions will get better with time. “Each year, it adds more data to improve the database,” he said. “The other thing is to refine the mathematical approach and to expand some of the methodology.”
Sheree Bernardi of Charleston affiliate WTMA filed this report